SpaceX, one of the most valued private companies globally, has exploded in popularity and activity in recent years. This has caused many to wonder how much SpaceX is worth and how/when can you buy its stock?
Finding SpaceX’s true value is a bit tricky as it is a private company. We have to gain insight from private sales of shares or funding amounts to learn the company’s total value. With its most recent valuation in October of 2021, SpaceX became the second most valuable private company in the world, right behind Bytedance. Yup, SpaceX is just below TikTok’s company in total valuation.
As of October 2021, SpaceX’s value was just over $100 billion, which puts its shares at about $560 a piece. This was a massive milestone for the company, becoming a 100 times unicorn (a private company worth $1 billion) in the space industry. This valuation puts SpaceX up with similar valuations to publicly traded defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed (who both own ULA), and AirBus. That is while SpaceX only focuses on launches and satellite manufacturing, staying out of defense (minus launches), and aerospace production.
How far could SpaceX’s value rise?
The most significant players with SpaceX’s future valuation will be Starship and Starlink. These two programs could bring large amounts of wealth to the company, allowing it to be a leader in the telecommunications and transportation industries.
Starlink: the next big thing for SpaceX
SpaceX’s worldwide internet constellation, Starlink, just left beta and now serves almost 100,000 users worldwide. In the future, it is expected to grow in both commercial and enterprise users. The US Department of Defense has also shown some interest in seeing the technology developed, although there is no guarantee of a contract.
By 2025, Forbes predicts Starlink to grow and garner 2.3% of internet users, about 5.6 million, and have a value of $31.1 billion.
Starship: SpaceX’s possible secret treasure
SpaceX’s super heavy-lift fully reusable rocket, Starship, is still under development in South Texas. The goal for Starship is to fulfill SpaceX’s mission by colonizing Mars. Along the way, Starship could be used to deploy hundreds of Starlink satellites at a time, land astronauts on the Moon, and replace airplanes with point-to-point transportation. All of these are possible while still lowering costs to its customers.
These milestones are still too far away to estimate accurately, but looking at competitors in the industry, SpaceX can see similar estimations as Starlink. However, we are very far away from seeing Starship point-to-point become a mature SpaceX product. Starship is still nowhere near operational. We are still waiting to see if SpaceX will receive its launch license from the FAA for its Orbital Flight Test, destined for the beginning of next year.
Starship and Starlink’s reliance on each other
In an email Space Explored reported on November 29, Musk states how vital Starship development is to Starlink’s survival.
The consequences for SpaceX if we can not get enough reliable Raptors made is that we then can’t fly Starship, which means we then can’t fly Starlink Satellite V2 (Falcon has neither the volume nor the mass to orbit needed for satellite V2). Satellite V1, by itself, is financially weak, while V2 is strong.
Later in the email, Musk attempts to rally the troops stating, “we face a genuine risk of bankruptcy if we can’t achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year.” Of course, doing what SpaceX does is extremely difficult and takes a lot of capital to keep it going. While this may seem far fetch to happen, Musk stated in reply to our reporting, “while still unlikely, is not impossible.”
How to buy SpaceX stock
SpaceX’s stock isn’t available publicly, as all shares are bought and sold privately between cooperations. However, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has stated he would take the company public once it has secured Martian colonization. This is to ensure that the company’s goal will not be influenced by investors worried about increasing profits.
Musk’s disdain for taking SpaceX public was shown in a leaked company-wide email from 2013 where he said:
I am increasingly concerned about SpaceX going public before the Mars transport system is in place. Creating the technology needed to establish life on Mars is and always has been the fundamental goal of SpaceX. If being a public company diminishes that likelihood, then we should not do so until Mars is secure.Elon Musk in a 2013 internal SpaceX email
In response to the email, Musk said, “A lot has happened in 8 years.” Of course, what that could mean is anyone’s best guest.
That being said, Starlink has a larger chance of becoming publicly traded in the near future. Both Musk and the President of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell, have stated that Starlink could be spun off as a separate IPO in the future. However, Musk will not until revenue becomes more predictable and manufacturing costs are reduced.