How close is SpaceX’s Starship to launching?

The FAA is expected to release the launch license for Starship as early as today. Reports from Christian Davenport, a reporter for The Washington Post, have stated that the license is nearly ready, barring some environmental concerns and a legal review. A strategy could come into play as to when the license is actually granted due to environmental activists attempting to halt the launch.

Edit: Road closure canceled for April 10.

One of the major steps in getting Starship to orbit is having the hardware and software ready for both the vehicle and the support systems on the ground. However, like aircraft, no flight can happen until the agency that governs the skies gives the approval to fly through them.

This license simply permits SpaceX to launch Starship. When it gets released, it will be one of the final checklist items of regulatory approval to launch. Every rocket launch needs a launch license, but due to the unproven nature of Starship, much more goes into determining if Starship is safe to fly.

What’s next?

As there has been no official confirmation of a launch date from SpaceX, as of publication, it is hard to determine when Starship will launch. However, with a fully stacked launch vehicle, it appears the hardware components are ready. There could be some full stack testing in the next week or so, but the launch vehicle remains largely ready to go.

There have been some indications that there are software elements to iron out, but based on Elon Musk’s recent interactions and comments on Twitter, it appears that the team is confident in Starship’s readiness. After any final testing, Ship 24 will be destacked to arm the Flight Termination System.

Indicators of Flight

So far, only a marine notice has been released for a potential launch. However, the marine notice expires on April 12th and the road closures set for April 11 and 12 are non-flight closures.

Last night on April 5, a Notice To Airmen (NOTAM) was posted for April 10-12 in Mexican airspace. Not all notices will come from the United States since Starbase sits right on the border with Mexico.

Other indicators include evacuation notices, which are likely to come within days of launch, and a temporary flight restriction (TFR). It is important to remember that marine notices, TFRs, and the like are easily resettable, making them no setback for SpaceX.

Another fun indicator is that John Inspruker, a long-time SpaceX employee and livestream commentator, is working on webcast rehearsals, meaning the media team at SpaceX is gearing up for coverage.

Happy First Contact Day! As Troi said to Data and Picard – would you three like to be alone? Hey, it's a Titan! And here I am w/ a Titan IV years ago. Now it's Falcons and Starships.
Spending time now working on webcast rehearsals for first test flight of Starship. pic.twitter.com/qBtYZsciZs

— John Insprucker (@jinsprucker) April 6, 2023

Overall, Starship could be ready to launch this month and signs indicate that SpaceX is getting very close to being ready. While it is an exciting time, the possibility of seeing weeks-long delays is still very likely. However, we are closer than ever before.