Starship Flight 9: Is next week launch week?

Monday, SpaceX static fired its next Starship vehicle at a test stand in Starbase, Texas, for a third time. This time, SpaceX confirmed a successful static fire, making both stages now ready for Starship Flight 9. Could that be next week?

Maritime/Air Restrictions Say Yes: Both maritime and air restrictions are scheduled for next week in support of Starship Flight 9. These are common and happen for all launches to ensure the public inside US territory is safe.

While an important indicator for when SpaceX believes it will be ready, they are not a rule that shows a launch is happening. The US Coast Guard and FAA don’t look into the rocket’s flight readiness when issuing these restrictions, just that the activity being requested is credible enough to warrant public restrictions.

FAA Says Not Yet: While the FAA’s flight restrictions aren’t a rule for launch, the administration’s launch licenses are. As of Tuesday, the FAA states that SpaceX has yet to submit its report as to what caused Flight 8’s inflight failure. With a successful static fire on Monday and a hopeful launch next week, even though SpaceX hasn’t confirmed a launch date, that report could come any day now.

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While the FAA oversees the investigation and has the final say on whether it accepts SpaceX’s findings, the investigation is led internally by SpaceX. It is common for the FAA to defer to the company, as they usually have more knowledge about what went wrong.

Booster 14 Returns: In the meantime, SpaceX has installed Booster 14 at Starbase Pad A ahead of likely final testing and then full stacking of the Starship rocket. Booster 14 previously flew on Starship Flight 7 back in January. That flight saw the booster successfully launch and return to the launch pad for a catch; however, the ship failed before completing its burn.

This will be the first time Starship reuses a booster, a big step in the rocket’s development and goal of becoming the first fully reusable rocket.

Flight 9 is Do or Die (ish): Flight 9 will see many repeat tests from the last two flights: Validate Starship Block 2 design, deploy dummy Starlink payloads, relight a Raptor engine mid-flight, and test new heat shield designs. These are the same tests from Flights 7 and 8 because both of those missions concluded before any of them could be completed.

Starship Flight 8 suffered a similar failure to that of Flight 7, a catastrophic event in the aft section. Flight 7’s investigation found that it was an issue with the Block 2 ship’s new propellant feed lines. SpaceX believed it had solved the problem for Flight 8; however, it is believed that the same issue caused that ship’s demise.

Getting SpaceX back on track and moving at full speed forward will greatly help NASA in its goal of returning humans to the Moon’s surface on Artemis III in 2027. Starship was selected to be that mission’s lander back in 2021 and will likely require a dozen Starship launches in quick succession. Another failure will only make that timeline less and less believable.

This year, SpaceX is hoping for 25 launches, a goal that will likely be missed due to its current development setbacks.