Weather delays Crew-11, that might be a continued curse

Yesterday, SpaceX was forced to scrub its launch of NASA’s Crew-11 mission to the ISS due to a rather nasty cloud that rolled over the launch pad. Today, SpaceX will reattempt; however, the chances of good launch weather have gotten worse, and that may be the theme for the rest of the weekend.

Crew-11’s launch was scrubbed just before the T-1 minute mark due to a weather hold. Given the instantaneous launch window the mission had, any hold would result in a scrub for the day.

The weather issue was due to breaking the cumulus cloud rule SpaceX provided to the 45th Weather Squadron. These rules are set by the launch provider but monitored by the Eastern Range for compliance. The Range also monitors for anyone entering the hazard zones and airspace before launch to ensure complete safety for the public.

Today’s new launch time is 11:43 A.M. ET, and there are 60% favorable conditions for launch. Yesterday, SpaceX had a much higher favorable weather report prior to launch operations beginning, but that can fluctuate as the countdown continues.

Poor weather continues not just at the launch site but along Crew-11’s ascent corridor. While uncrewed launches don’t need to worry about this, for crewed missions, a certain number of recovery zones must be green in order for a launch to take place. This corridor stretches from Florida, up the eastern coast of the U.S., and across the Atlantic to Ireland.

Crew-11’s backup launch dates, Saturday and Sunday, both have this risk of the ascent corridor but a better overall chance of weather violation, 85% favorable and 80% favorable, respectively.

With any launch, no matter how bad the weather reports show, there is always a chance for good launch weather. We’ve seen Falcon 9 launches with 20% favorable weather conditions before, although those were not crewed.

Coverage of Crew-11 has begun on NASA’s streaming platforms: X, Netflix, NASA+, and other social media sites. SpaceX’s coverage will begin just before the T-1 hour mark.