SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has been the company’s workhorse since its debut in 2010. It has delivered cargo to the ISS, helped build out a new GPS constellation, redefined the cost of launch, and delivered thousands of Starlink satellites into orbit. It has done so by repeatedly breaking yearly launch records and hitting triple-digit launch years twice. However, with Starship’s soon debut as an operational rocket, the company plans to sunset the Falcon 9, ending its dominance during its peak.
Since 2020, SpaceX has been on a mission to increase its yearly launch totals every year, both pushing what many believe is possible from a launch provider and the ranges, which are owned and operated by the military.
However, SpaceX proved the critics wrong and completed its first triple-digit launch year in 2024. With us being in the last quarter of 2025, the company has already achieved its second, and no one doubts a third will take place in 2026.
That massive increase in yearly launches is thanks to the company’s Starlink satellite constellation. The internet-from-space provider requires a large number of satellites both to increase its bandwidth across the globe and to replace any satellites lost to orbital decay.
Nearly three quarters of SpaceX’s 2025 launches are credited to Starlink. While SpaceX boasts the most cost-competitive launch costs in the industry, its non-Starlink numbers would not be as headline-making compared to what they are with the constellation’s missions.
But we could already have been witnessing SpaceX’s peak for Falcon 9 launches. With what is hopeful to be the return to successful test launches for Starship, the vehicle is getting extremely close to beginning internal launches for Starlink.
Starship will be able to launch far more satellites than the Falcon 9. Furthermore, only Starship will be able to launch the full-size v3 Starlink satellites under development. It’s a logical move for SpaceX to begin transitioning to Starship for all Starlink launches once it can launch orbital missions.
Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO of SpaceX, has even mentioned this earlier this year. “This year and next year I anticipate will be the highest Falcon launch rates that we will see,” Shotwell said in August. SpaceNews paraphrases her remaining discussions to say “she said the company would start shifting launches to Starship.”
Space Explored’s Take
The next question to ask for this transition is when? In Starship’s 11 test flights, the vehicle has yet to be able to make it to orbit. SpaceX believed it could perform its first orbital mission with the version 2 hardware, but now states that it will come with version 3.
Starship’s version 3 hardware is expected to finish being built by the end of the year. My guess is we will have to wait until Q1 of 2026 before we see a Starship v3 fly. Between hardware production, typical pre-flight tests, and any additional tests with both the hardware and launch pad being brand new, a 2025 launch will be hard to achieve.
Starship Flight 12 will also likely be another suborbital mission, conducting similar tests that we saw from all the flights performed this year. However, this will hopefully be its last, with Flight 13, such a lucky number, likely being a contender for the first orbital Starship launch.
If a suborbital launch is proven successful on the v3 hardware, SpaceX may begin to fly real Starlink hardware on future rockets and start its v3 Starlink rollout by the end of next year. If this happens, that would likely mean the end of record-setting launch rates for Starlink missions from Florida and California. The Falcon 9 would be relegated to existing launch contracts, contracts with operators not trusting Starship yet, and filling in the gaps with Starlink missions with an expected lower Starship launch rate in the beginning.
We are still a long way off before the Falcon 9 is officially retired. Both NASA and the Space Force rely on it as a workhorse rocket, launching crew and cargo to the International Space Station and the nation’s most sensitive payloads to orbit.
It could also take years to certify Starship for government contracts as it may be seen as too novel and risky for its billion-dollar payloads. But a day will come, likely in the next decade, when SpaceX retires its once champion of reusability for its fully reusable and gigantic sibling.
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