How close is SpaceX to reaching 100 launches this year?

SpaceX has completed its rocket launches for the first half of 2023, prompting a review of their accomplishments thus far. Additionally, it begs the question of whether they are on track to achieve their goal of 100 missions this year.

Elon Musk, CEO and founder of SpaceX, announced earlier this year that the company aimed to accomplish 100 Falcon launches in 2023, a significant increase from the 61 launches achieved in 2022.

At present, SpaceX is certainly poised to surpass their 2022 performance, a trend they have consistently demonstrated since 2019. So, what is their progress so far? In the first half of 2023, SpaceX has successfully launched 44 rockets—comprising 41 Falcon 9s, two Falcon Heavies, and one Starship.

While they have fallen slightly behind the target of 100 launches, there is ample time remaining in the year for them to catch up. Furthermore, SpaceX has expedited their launch rate by implementing a new trick.

Can SpaceX make it to 100 still?

To achieve 100 launches this year, SpaceX would need to launch once every 3.65 days. In the first half of the year, their launch rate was approximately one launch every 4.05 days (not including Starship). This accelerated pace has been made possible by launching nearly every week and occasionally conducting back-to-back or double-header launch days.

Over the past few months, SpaceX has significantly intensified their operations, and although they will observe a brief hiatus until their next launch, the first weekend of July will witness another double-header of launches.

One purported reason for this increased launch cadence is a new design for the second stage nozzle, which was introduced in April. This shorter nozzle is less efficient and can transport fewer payloads into orbit. However, for certain payloads, the cost advantage outweighs the reduced efficiency.

Moreover, this design reportedly enables faster production. While we have become accustomed to reusing Falcon 9 first stages and payload fairings, the second stage remains expendable. By reducing the time required to construct a new second stage, SpaceX can minimize the downtime between launches.

Considering the current 2023 manifest, which includes 31 launches, and the addition of any Starlink missions, it is plausible that SpaceX may achieve the 100-launch milestone or come remarkably close to it.