Elon Musk thinks the next Starship’s flight hardware will be ready in ‘3-4 weeks’

In a reply on his social media site X, Elon Musk shared his timeline for when he wants the next pieces of Starship flight hardware ready. However, we still don’t have any details as to what caused the RUDs of Saturday’s launch.

Starship Flight 3 hardware by Christmas

After inspections of Starbase’s orbital launch mount, Elon Musk shared via X, that it was in great condition and no refurbishment needed to the water deluge system and plate. That doesn’t mean the whole mount was free from damage, we’ve seen continued work since the launch on the mount. Including some scaffolding showing up on top.

Later in the day, in a response to when SpaceX could be ready to launch again, Musk stated that “Starship Flight 3 hardware should be ready to fly in 3 to 4 weeks.”

Starship Flight 3 hardware should be ready to fly in 3 to 4 weeks. There are three ships in final production in the high bay (as can be seen from the highway).

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 20, 2023

As Musk continued in his response, SpaceX already has three ships in final production, meaning any one of those could be the next flight ready Starship. For Boosters, there are a few of those as well that could become flight ready.

Super Heavy Booster 11 just returned from the old Massey’s gun range, a site SpaceX purchased last year and turned into a rocket test site.

We should know which Boosters and Starship ships are being prepared for flight when they are moved from Starbase production to the Starbase launch site for further testing. Although even that won’t 100% mean those vehicles will fly.

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When might we actually see Flight 3?

Three to four weeks would put us in mid-December, aka Christmas season. From a SpaceX point of view, this is a very reasonable timeframe, even in Elon terms, to get flight hardware ready. However, that doesn’t necessary mean SpaceX can fly by then.

SpaceX will first have to complete its mishap investigation and report its finding to the FAA with corrective actions to ensure a similar failure won’t happen again. Then the FAA will have to improve the actions and complete its own safety review to make sure the public won’t be at risk for another flight.

Unlike April’s launch, there’s isn’t a fear of having any issues getting a second launch approval from the FAA. There’s precedent now that the FAA will give SpaceX another launch on its license and eventually close out the investigations.

That lawsuit with the FAA from environmental activist is always a concern however. But that lawsuit is seemingly not moving very fast and there was no challenge to try to stop Flight 2 so an attempt to stop Flight 3 is unlikely.

So the biggest unknown at the moment is how long will the mishap investigation take. Weeks, maybe months? Hopefully not, but SpaceX won’t be able to launch anything from Starbase until that is finished.

My guess: Since Musk only said when its technical readiness will be, I think no launch until early 2024 is reasonable. Don’t forget to vote in our latest poll on when the next Starship launch will actually take place.