Terminal Count: Boeing and Airbus out of space?

A recent Space Capital report states that the massive defense primes of Boeing and Airbus could divest themselves of space entirely. Given the new administration’s wish to potentially sack SLS, could companies like Boeing be out of space entirely?

Check out this week’s podcast.

This week’s launches

• January 27 (Monday)
  • SpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 12-7 | 3:22 P.M. ET
    • SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
• January 28 (Tuesday)
  • Blue Origin | New Shepard | NS-29 | 10:00 A.M. CT
    • Launch Site One, West Texas
  • ISRO | GSLV | NVS-02 | 7:53 P.M. ET
    • Second Launch Pad, Satish Dhawan Space Centre, India
• January 29 (Wednesday)
  • SpaceX | Falcon 9 | SPAINSAT New Generation I | 8:34 P.M. ET
    • LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
• January 30 (Thursday)
  • SpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 12-3 | 5:44 A.M. ET
    • SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
  • SpaceX | Falcon 9 | Starlink Group 11-4 | 3:32 P.M. PT
    • SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California
• February 1 (Saturday)
  • MHI | H3 | Michibiki 6 | 3:30 A.M. ET
    • LA-Y2, Tanegashima Space Center, Japan

This week’s news

Blue Origin will simulate lunar gravity on its first New Shepard launch of 2025. The NS-29 mission will see the capsule’s reaction control system spin it up to 11 revolutions a minute, simulating lunar gravity for its flurry of experiments inside their lockers. [Blue Origin]

Heat shield tiles began showing up on the shores of the Turks and Caicos Islands after SpaceX’s Starship Flight 7 mission ended prematurely. The FAA has an investigation into debris falling outside its designated zones, although SpaceX denies those claims. [Space Explored]

SpaceX has begun building out its second set of catch arms for Starship at its Starbase facility in South Texas. The second launch tower will soon become the main launch pad for future Starship missions while the company makes modifications to Pad A. After that, SpaceX will have two Starbase launch pads for future flights. [Space Explored]

A new series of Starlink launches have been causing headaches for Qantas, an Australian airline. The airline has stated its flights to and from Johannesburg have been getting delays due to Starlink Group 6 and now also Group 12 launches, both of which bring debris hazard zones along the Southern Coast of Africa. [Space Explored]

Prepare for space politically battles

President Trump returned to the White House last Monday. The incoming administration will seemingly have a lot of changes to make regarding policies across government, including space. Elon Musk, who spent a quarter of a billion dollars to get Trump reelected, will have the ear of the President. So will Jared Isaacman, who is expected to become the next NASA Administrator.

Both have expressed displeasure with NASA’s current method of exploration, the Artemis program. Musk would like to ditch going to the Moon and head straight to Mars, while Isaacman wants to ditch the Space Launch System in favor of commercial options. Both will be hard battles to get past Congress.

Both Artemis and the SLS touch every state and employ a large workforce. Congress has repeatedly backed NASA’s mission to return to the Moon by the end of the decade and make that return before China reaches it for the first time.

While rumors of political deals, including Space Command Headquarters going to Alabama due to SLS’s cancellation, have been floated, getting NASA to switch its priority to Mars will take a lot more political willpower. Willpower that Trump will only have a short amount of time to use before he becomes a lame duck post mid-terms.

Defense primes gone from space?

It’s been a rough few years if you’re a defense prime, especially hard if you’re Boeing. The company announced $1.7 billion in charges it will take across its defense and space businesses. A few hundred million of that will be for the company’s Starliner spacecraft.

Space Capital’s 2025 report on the industry states that it believes both Boeing and its European competitor Airbus will divest themselves from the space market entirely.

Boeing is already talking about ditching every space contract but a select few like Starliner and SLS, while also not taking any future contracts that are not cost-plus. This is fine for the rest of the commercial companies that can make fixed-price contracts work.

Space Capital believes the continued growth and lack of regulation of the commercial space market will only reduce the hold current primes have over the space industry, both civil and defense. SpaceX has become one of the largest satellite manufacturers in the world, serving both itself and the Department of Defense.

Smaller companies like K2 Space and Planet are also on the hunt for defense contracts. With the DoD’s move away from large, bespoke satellites that take a decade or more to build, companies like Boeing or Airbus might find it hard to stay profitable with the new satellite architecture method.