When might Starship reach 25 flights a year?

This week, the FAA approved SpaceX‘s request to increase its Starship launch limit from Starbase from five launches to 25. A great step towards full operation, but will SpaceX even reach that goal this year?

So far, SpaceX has launched two Starship rockets in 2025. While initially a much faster cadence than 2024, it has come to a halt as the company tackles back-to-back launch failures in a similar fashion. However, that hasn’t stopped Starbase from pumping out hardware.

Elon Musk wishes for SpaceX to hit that 25-launch goal this year, which would be a launch every other week. That rate, so far, has not yet materialized.

The current state of Starship’s development is that SpaceX is attempting to debut its new Block 2 second stage ship. The previous two flights, Flight 7 and Flight 8, were supposed to be simple repeats of the typical suborbital flight trajectory. Previous vehicles have completed this in the past, but both vehicles suffered in-flight failures just prior to engine shutdown.

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While it’s still unknown if the two failures are related, same time doesn’t always mean same failure; it’s suspected the change was with the new propellant feed system to the ship’s Raptor engines. Rather than having one large feed line from the ship’s liquid methane tanks, which sits on top of the liquid oxygen tank, Starship Block 2 has several smaller ones.

Starship Flight 7’s investigation has been completed and was found to be an issue with these new feed lines. However, Flight 8’s investigation is still ongoing. This will likely block SpaceX from conducting any more launches until complete, as the FAA will need approval before clearing it for launch.

A 25-launch Starship year was very possible when the year started. The company was on a roll with improvements each mission and an increasing cadence. However, the stall in launches makes me doubt that goal will be hit this year.

But there is still plenty of year left for SpaceX to spring back. All it takes is one good launch on Flight 9 for the entire momentum to shift. SpaceX is stocking up on rocket hardware, and with Flight 9 being the first launch to reuse a booster, that milestone could massively increase cadence.

If Flight 9 is a success, then SpaceX could begin orbital Starship launches, deploying operational Starlink satellites and further developing its refueling system. Both are important for Starship success for SpaceX and NASA as its future lunar lander.

The number of 2025 Starship launches might be up in the air, but if the momentum returns to be in SpaceX’s favor this year, 2026 could be the year we see 25 or maybe more Starship launches.