When will ULA launch this year?

We’re soon closing the chapter on the first quarter of 2025, and so far the only companies in the headlines for launches have been SpaceX and Rocket Lab, with other companies like Firefly soon to follow. However, SpaceX’s supposed competitor has been nowhere, still waiting on final work from the Space Force that its Vulcan rocket is cleared to launch the missions it was contracted to do. So when might ULA, Vulcan, or Atlas finally launch next?

ULA finish up Vulcan investigation, awaits Space Force

While Vulcan’s Cert-1 flight went off without a hitch, Vulcan Cert-2 suffered from an anomaly with one of its two solid rocket motors during ascent. While the mission was still deemed successful, the motor’s failed nozzle led to a multi-month investigation that concluded with a full-duration test firing of a modified booster last month.

The cause of the anomaly was stated to be a “manufacturer defect,” with no other details being shared due to proprietary information. With the new test and investigation complete, ULA now hopes for certification of Vulcan by the Space Force to be coming soon.

ULA’s CEO, Tory Bruno, has been stating for many months at this point that Space Force certification should be coming soon. Last year, he said it would be by the end of the year, then in Q1 of 2025, first of March, and now we’re nearing the end of the month and still no word from the Space Force.

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The only information we got from the Space Force was from an unpublished report by the Department of Defense obtained by Bloomberg, stating that the department found ULA’s performance last year to be “unsatisfactory.” An understatement if you were promised multiple National Security launches in 2024 but are still waiting for a clean bill of health in early 2025.

ULA claims the report was “inaccurate” when it was written and expected certification soon (that was the March 1 date). While the rocket seems to be well-built, it did complete two successful launches, so something still seems to be holding the Space Force up in giving it the green light.

Atlas V still kicking in final launches

With delays to the expected USSF-106 mission, Vulcan’s first National Security launch, ULA has pivoted its launch operations to ready an Atlas V for Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellite service for launch. This will make the Atlas V the first launch for ULA in 2025, but no date has been given yet.

Last month, teams began destacking the Vulcan rocket inside its Government Vertical Integration Facility and began stacking one of the few Atlas V’s that remain for launch.

Amazon is looking to launch as many as eight Atlases filled with Kuiper satellites by sometime in 2026 as it begins to build out its constellation. That doesn’t include the 38 more Vulcan rockets purchased by the company.

From the look at ULA’s manifest, it seems that ULA only has 15 Atlas V rockets left in stock. Eight of those are for Amazon, while another six are for Boeing and its Starliner spacecraft. Those six are expected to be operational missions for NASA; however, the need for yet another test flight could throw a wrench in NASA’s scheduling for crew rotations, with Starliner not being certified for flights on Vulcan—at least, it’s not certified yet.